One and Not Done?

So everyone is wondering how and if a 1 loss SEC team can play for the national championship. I will give you a few scenarios that could play out to see a national title game rematch between LSU and Alabama.

And let me just get this out of the way first. Yes, Boise State did beat Georgia early in the season, but does that really mean anything to an LSU team that didn’t play Georgia this year?

Scenario 1
For this scenario to play out LSU will have to lose to Alabama in a CLOSE game. LSU would get the respect of playing the number 2 team in the country on the road and it would bolster their strength of schedule into the top 10 (currently 13th in Sagarin ratins SOS). If LSU loses close, they will need every other undefeated team to lose, except for Boise. LSU also needs West Virginia to stay in the top 25 to help them in the computer polls.

The critical part is that Stanford must lose to Oregon, who LSU beat up on in the first game of the season.

If Clemson loses a game, they are out and will probably drop out of the top 10.

Oklahoma has lost a game, but for LSU’s interest, they need to lose to Oklahoma State in the last game of their season. Why? Well if Oklahoma beats undefeated Kansas State this weekend, a ranked Texas A&M, Baylor, and then undefeated Oklahoma State in their final game, they are likely to be the highest ranked 1 loss team. Does that mean they would go over a 1 loss LSU? Maybe, so for this scenario to work out, Oklahoma needs to lose to Oklahoma State.

Oklahoma State needs to lose to anyone. They have Baylor, Kansas State, and Texas Tech left to play and if they lose to any of them, they are likely to drop far enough to be out of the race. Then Oklahoma State would need to beat OU. Like above.

Kansas State will need to lose a game to anyone.

That leaves LSU and Oregon as the two highest ranked teams in the BCS, and LSU having that win over Oregon would play into the Coaches and Harris polls. This would/could mean that a 1 loss LSU could face an undefeated Alabama in the title game.

Scenario 1 rundown
Alabama undefeated
LSU 1 loss win out
Stanford 1 loss to Oregon
Oregon 1 loss to LSU
Oklahoma 1 loss to one of these K St, A&M, Baylor
Oklahoma State 1 loss to one of these Baylor, K St, TT
Kansas State 1 loss to one of these  OU, Ok St, A&M, UT (4 top 25 games in a row FYI)
Clemson 1 loss to  GT, USC, or ACC Championship

 

Scenario 2
Alabama loses to LSU and wins out. If Alabama loses to LSU, it’s less likely to have a rematch, based off of the fact that it’ll be a home loss and the Tide’s schedule doesn’t favor them very much, 35th overall. Obviously, LSU and Alabama must both win out after they meet. That would eliminate Arkansas after LSU beat them.

For Alabama and LSU to play again, more miracles have to happen.

Stanford needs to lose to Oregon and Oregon needs to lose the PAC12 championship to, most probably, Arizona State. That would knock both Stanford (1 loss) and Oregon (2 losses) out of the title game. If Oregon wins the PAC12 and the rest of this scenario plays out, the polls would have to pick which rematch they want to see, LSU vs Oregon, or LSU vs Alabama.

Oklahoma needs to lose to Kansas State and Oklahoma State.

Oklahoma State needs to lose to Kansas State and Texas Tech.

Kansas State needs to lose to Texas Tech and Texas.

Still following? See how this one is getting crazy? Stranger things have happend, so I carry on.

Clemson needs to lose ONE game, South Carolina seems to be the best for that to happen, and the ACC title game to, most probably, Virginia Tech.

This scenario would put LSU undefeated at #1 and Alabama as the highest ranked 1 loss team, followed closely by Boise (undefeated), Michigan State (1 loss), and Virginia Tech (1 loss).

Scenario 2 rundown
LSU undefeated
Alabama 1 loss wins out
Stanford 2 loss to SC and Oregon
Oregon 2 loss to LSU and Az St in PAC12 Championship
Oklahoma 2 loss to K St and OkSt
Okahoma State 2 loss to K St and TT
Kansas State 2 loss to TT and UT
Clemson 2 loss to GT and USC, or GT/USC and ACC Championship
For good measure
Virginia Tech 2 loss to  GT/Virginia and Clemson loss
Michigan State 2 loss to  Neb and probably Penn St in BIG10 Championship
Wisconsin 2 loss to Sparty and Penn St
Penn State will have one loss but is ranked too low to be thrown into BCS

Ok, so what do we know?

NOTHING! Good luck seeing the second scenario play out. The first one is a lot more likely.